3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release May Existing Home Sales on Friday June 21st at 10 AM ET. The early consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.14 million in April, and down from 4.23 million in May 2023.
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to May 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).
This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in May. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Closed sales in May were mostly for contracts signed in March and April when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.82% and 6.99%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).
Active Inventory in May
Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets.
Inventory is up 36.7% year-over-year (YoY). Last month inventory in these markets was up 29.0% YoY. A key for house prices will be how much inventory builds over the next few months.
Inventory is down in most of these areas compared to 2019. Inventory in Denver and Jacksonville is up compared to May 2019.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to tables in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta or Denver (included in state total)
Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!
New Listings in May
And here is a table for new listings in May (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 16.4% year-over-year.
Last month, new listings in these markets were up 24.3% year-over-year.
New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in all of these areas - except Jacksonville - are down compared to May 2019 activity.
Closed Sales in May
And a table of May sales.
In May, sales in these markets were down 0.6% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were up 7.6% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). However, there were two more working days in April 2024 than in April 2023, so seasonally adjusted, sales were down YoY last month.
Sales in all of these markets are down compared to May 2019.
This is a small year-over-year decrease NSA for these markets. There were the same number of working days in May 2024 compared to May 2023, so the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted sales will be about the same as the NSA data suggests. The NAR reported sales in May 2023 were 4.23 million SAAR.
This data suggests that the May existing home sales report will likely show sales down slightly from sales in May 2023.
Many more local markets to come!