1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

Denver, Las Vegas and San Diego

This is the first look at local markets in September. I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

The following data is important, especially active inventory and new listings. I’m looking to see if inventory will follow the normal seasonal pattern and decline into the winter, or if inventory will increase this year.

It is also interesting to see regional and local differences. For the last year, most housing markets moved together with rapidly falling inventory and sharply increasing house prices. However, in August, about half of these markets saw a month-over-month (MoM) increase in inventory - and the other half saw a decrease - so we might be seeing some regional divergence.

In August, only two markets saw a year-over-year (YoY) increase in inventory, but there were significant differences in the YoY change. Although the median YoY decrease was about 24%, several markets saw decreases of over 40%.

On a national basis, it is likely inventory will be up year-over-year sometime during the winter months, but inventory will still be at very low levels.

Denver, Las Vegas and San Diego

Here are a few local comments …

From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report

After Realtors® felt a relative slow down and seasonal return in July and August, September felt back to the normal red-hot speed in today’s housing market. Closed properties were 12.81 percent lower than last month at this time and a notable 19.27 percent lower than last September. With lower inventory and fewer homes, the balance of supply and demand stayed steady, leading to another month of competition for buyers. Months of inventory increased to .76 and while it may not have felt like a huge increase, it gave potential buyers a few more options.

From Las Vegas Realtors® Southern Nevada housing market stabilizing, but still setting records, LVR housing statistics for September 2021

“The housing market is starting to stabilize nationwide. This month’s LVR statistics suggest that we may be doing the same here in Southern Nevada,” said LVR President Aldo Martinez, a longtime local REALTOR®. “Prices are still increasing, but they’re going up more gradually than in previous months. We may be getting back to the type of seasonal trends we were used to seeing before the pandemic. Local home prices and sales typically peak during the summer and slow down a bit in the fall and winter before rising again in the spring. The pandemic disrupted this pattern last year.”

Active Inventory in September

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in September. Inventory was down 1.0% in September MoM from August, and down 36.6% YoY.

Inventory in San Diego is at an all time low, whereas inventory in Denver is up 107% (about double) from the all time low in March of this year. Las Vegas inventory is up 74% from the record low in April. Most markets have seen active inventory increase from earlier this year, but San Diego and Miami are plumbing new lows.

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New Listings in September

And here is a table for new listings in September. For these three areas, new listings were down 10.5% YoY (mostly San Diego).

Closed Sales in September

And a table of September sales. Sales were down 11.1% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Sales in Las Vegas were up YoY.

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