NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).
This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in November. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Closed sales in November were mostly for contracts signed in September and October when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.18% and 6.43%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). These were the lowest mortgage rates in 2 years!
Active Inventory in November
Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets.
Inventory was up 24.7% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 31.7% YoY. A key for house prices will be the level of inventory over the Winter.
There are significant regional differences for inventory, with sharp increases in the South and Southeast (especially in Florida and Texas). These areas haven’t reported yet for September.
Comparing to November 2019, inventory is up in Denver and down sharply in San Diego.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
New Listings in November
And here is a table for new listings in November (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 0.5% year-over-year.
Last month, new listings in these markets were up 19.5% year-over-year.
New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in all of these areas are down compared to November 2019 activity.
Closed Sales in November
And a table of November sales.
In November, sales in these markets were up 17.0% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were up 15.7% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Note that most of these early reporting markets have shown stronger year-over-year sales than most markets (for the last several months).
Important: There was one fewer working day in November 2024 (19) as compared to November 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will better than the NSA data suggests (there are other seasonal factors).
Last month, there was one more working day in October 2024 (22) as in October 2023 (21), so seasonally adjusted sales were not as strong year-over-year as NSA sales.
Sales in all of these markets are down significantly compared to November 2019.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis. Last year, the NAR reported sales in November 2023 at 3.91 million SAAR.
This early data suggests that the November existing home sales report will show a solid year-over-year increase. This will be the second year-over-year gain since July 2021 (last month was the first). Of course, sales will still be historically low, and mortgage rates have increased recently, are close to 7%, and this will likely depress sales in coming months.
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!