1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

Denver: "only 1,477 active properties on the market, 11,175 fewer houses on the market than normal"

This is the first look at local markets in December. I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

My view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory (not yet!).

The following data is important, especially active inventory and new listings. One of the key factors for house prices is supply and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.

On a national basis, we will see record low inventory over the Winter. I’ll be watching to see if inventory follows the normal seasonal pattern and bottoms in January or February.

Denver, Las Vegas and San Diego

Here are a few local comments …

From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report

Throughout the ebbs and flows of 2021, interest rates remained low and buyer demand stayed consistently high. DMAR found there were more homes purchased in 2021, 63,684 than any previous year. While demand was at an all-time high, the number of new listings that hit the market throughout the year was down 5.26 percent, which is one of the reasons why the market ended the year with another historic indicator, month-end active listings. 

At the beginning of January, there were only 1,477 active properties on the market in the entire Denver Metro area, which is 11,175 fewer houses on the market than normal. Based on the sustained demand for housing and lack of inventory, the market is projected to see double-digit appreciation this year, which it has not seen in back-to-back years of double-digit appreciation since 2015-2016 and 1998-2000. …

“Additionally, we tragically lost almost 1,000 homes in the Marshall and Middle Fork fires, with many of those homes falling within the Luxury Market. The loss of those homes puts further pressure on an already tight real estate market.”

emphasis added 

From Las Vegas Realtors® LVR reports rising prices, record year for existing home sales in Southern Nevada; LVR housing statistics for December 2021

A report released Thursday by Las Vegas REALTORS® (LVR) shows 2021 was a record year for sales of existing homes in Southern Nevada, with more than 50,000 properties changing hands despite rapidly rising prices and a tight housing supply. …

According to LVR, the total number of existing local homes, condos, townhomes and other residential properties sold in Southern Nevada during 2021 was 50,010. That was the first time the association reported more than 50,000 properties changing hands in a year and topped the previous record set in 2011 by nearly 2,000 sales. By comparison, LVR reported 41,155 total sales during 2020.

The year ended with a shrinking local housing supply and with homes continuing to sell faster than during past years. The current sales pace equates to less than a one-month supply of properties available for sale, Roberts said.

Active Inventory in December

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in December. Inventory was down 28.4% in December month-over-month (MoM) from November, and down 46.3% year-over-year (YoY).

Inventory almost always declines seasonally in December, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 39% YoY, so the YoY decline in December is larger than in November. This isn’t indicating a slowing market.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

   

Please share with your friends and colleagues!

New Listings in December

And here is a table for new listings in December. For these areas, new listings were down 14.8% YoY.

Last month, new listings in these three markets were down only 2.3% YoY.

Closed Sales in December

And a table of December sales. Sales were down 11.1% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that there was one fewer selling day in December ‘21 compared to December ‘20, so the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) number will show less of a YoY decline than the NSA numbers.

Much more to come!