1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).
This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in December. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Closed sales in December were mostly for contracts signed in October and November when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.43% and 6.81%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in November, but down from the average rate of 7.5% in October and November 2023.
Active Inventory in December
Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets.
Inventory was up 27.2% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 24.1% YoY.
There are significant regional differences for inventory, with sharp increases in the South and Southeast (especially in Florida and Texas). These areas haven’t reported yet for December.
Comparing to December 2019, inventory is up in several areas and down sharply in San Diego.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
New Listings in December
And here is a table for new listings in December (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 11.8% year-over-year.
Last month, new listings in these markets were unchanged year-over-year.
New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in all of these areas are down compared to December 2019 activity.
Closed Sales in December
And a table of December sales.
In December, sales in these markets were up 18.1% YoY. Last month, in November, these same markets were up 17.6% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Note that most of these early reporting markets have shown stronger year-over-year sales than most markets (for the last several months).
Important: There was one more working day in December 2024 (21) as compared to December 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will less than the NSA data suggests (there are other seasonal factors).
Last month, there was one fewer working day in November 2024 (19) as compared to November 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was better than the NSA data suggested (there are other seasonal factors).
Sales in all of these markets are down significantly compared to December 2019.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis. Last year, the NAR reported sales in December 2023 at 3.88 million SAAR.
This early data suggests that the December existing home sales report might show a year-over-year increase. If so, this would be the third consecutive year-over-year gain following several years of year-over-year declines (since July 2021). Of course, sales will still be historically low, and mortgage rates have increased recently, are around 7%, and this will likely depress sales in coming months.
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!
My read: the strong YoY growth in closed sales across the NWMLS represented the tail end of the demand boomlet triggered (belatedly) by falling interest rates this fall. Pending sales growth, YoY, in the Seattle MSA was much lower, or negative in some parts like Snohomish County north of the major cities. So I expect we'll see flat YoY change in closed sales in January and February. Probably too soon to tell what the spring selling season will look like.