1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July

Early Reporting Markets Suggest Sales Down Less YoY in July than in June NSA

This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in July. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6.4% range in May, and 6.7% in June, compared to the low-to-mid 5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in July.

For review on mortgage rates, here is a table of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® data (includes points, so lower than the rate with no points).

As of this morning, 30-year rates were over 7%. This mortgage rate is from MortgageNewsDaily.com and is for top tier scenarios with zero points.

The higher rates in June, July and early August, will likely impact closed sales in August and September.

Local Comments

From the NorthWestMLS: Housing market downturn “inevitable” with higher rates, but brokers find bright spots

A downturn in the housing market was inevitable given higher mortgage rates, acknowledged broker Dick Beeson, but he and others who commented on the latest report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service noted some positives for both buyers and sellers.

“The number of existing homes for sale has dropped precipitously year-over-year in Western Washington,” Beeson observed, adding, “Right now, new construction can’t meet demand.”

Las Vegas REALTORS® (LVR): LVR reports home prices bouncing around, higher than last month, lower than last year; LVR housing statistics for July 2023

LVR reported that the median price of existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada through its Multiple Listing Service (MLS) during July was $450,000. That’s up 2.0% from June, but down 3.2% from $465,000 in July of 2022. Local home prices are still below the all-time record of $482,000 set in May of 2022.

The median price of local condos and townhomes sold in July was $273,500. That’s up 0.6% from $271,800 in July of 2022, but still below the all-time record condo and townhome price of $285,000, also set in May 2022.

Active Inventory in July

Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in July.

Inventory surged in some of these markets last year, but that has changed.

For example, inventory in Denver was up 81% YoY in July 2022, and is now down 14% YoY. And inventory in Las Vegas was up 144% YoY in July 2022, and is now down 41% YoY. That is a HUGE change.

Inventory for these markets were up 13% in June and are now down 23% YoY.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle)

   

New Listings in July

And here is a table for new listings in July (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 31.2% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 32.7% YoY. The decline in new listing in July - for these areas - was similar to the YoY decline for the last several months.

Closed Sales in July

And a table of July sales.

In July, sales in these markets were down 14.5%. In June, these same markets were down 20.5% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in June for these early reporting markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in July 2022 and July 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates. This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis.

This early data suggests the July existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline - and probably close to the June sales rate of 4.16 million (SAAR) - and the 23rd consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!