1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

Early reports suggest NAR reported sales could be lowest since 2010

This is the first look at local markets in December. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in December were mostly for contracts signed in October and November. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were over 7% for most of October (no points) and averaged 6.8% in November (Freddie PMMS with points) closed sales were probably impacted significantly in December.

For review on mortgage rates, here is a table of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® data (includes points, so lower than the rate with no point rates).

Median sales prices were unchanged year-over-year in Denver and Las Vegas, and up 2% in San Diego.

Denver, Las Vegas, San Diego

Here are some local comments …

From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report

The increase in interest rates and decrease in buyer demand impacted home prices. The median sale price for detached homes in December was $600,000, down 2.44 percent from November and 0.01 percent from December 2021. Attached homes also showed a month-over-month decline from $410,000 in November 2022 to $405,000 in December. Compared to December 2021, the median sold price for attached homes increased 5.74 percent. For both detached and attached homes, the peak median sale price for 2022 occurred in April, $680,000 and $440,000, respectively.  

“The post-pandemic shift back to a more normalized market will take some time,” commented Amanda Snitker, Vice Chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee and Metro Denver Realtor®.

emphasis added 

From Las Vegas Realtors® LVR reports Las Vegas area home prices back to where they were a year ago LVR; housing statistics for December 2022

LVR reported that the median price of existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada through its Multiple Listing Service (MLS) during December was $425,000. That’s down 1.4% from November and matches the median price from December 2021. It’s also down from the all-time record price of $482,000 in May of 2022.

The median price of local condos and townhomes sold in December was $246,950. That’s down 5.0% from the previous month, and down from the all-time record price of $285,000 in May. Condo and townhome prices are still up 2.0% from $242,000 in December 2021.

“Besides entering what is usually the slowest time of year for the housing market, rising mortgage interest rates are causing a contraction,” said 2023 LVR President Lee Barrett, a longtime local REALTOR® who took over as president of the association in January. “… We have more listings and fewer buyers.”

Active Inventory in December

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in December.

Inventory in these markets were down 38% YoY in January and are now up 138% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier in 2022, and about the same YoY inventory increase as in November (up 144% YoY).

New Listings in December

And here is a table for new listings in December. For these areas, new listings were down 32.4% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 27.6% YoY.

Closed Sales in December

And a table of December sales.

In December, sales were down 47.6%. In November, these same markets were down 48.3% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that in December 2022, there were the same number of selling days as in December 2021, so the SA decline will be similar to the NSA decline.

This is a similar YoY decline as in November for these early reporting markets. If national sales decline by the same percent as last month, the NAR will report sales for December under 4.0 million SAAR - below the 4.01 million in May 2020 (pandemic low) and the lowest sales rate since 2010.

Many more local markets to come!