1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

Denver: "the market ended with ... over 10 times less inventory than normal"

This is the first look at local markets in January. I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

My view is that if the housing market starts slowing, it will show up in inventory first (not yet!).

The following data is important, especially active inventory. One of the key factors for house prices is supply and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.

On a national basis, we are seeing record low inventory over the Winter. I’ll be watching to see if inventory follows the normal seasonal pattern and bottoms in February. Last year, inventory didn’t bottom until April.

Denver, Las Vegas, Northwest and San Diego

Here are a few local comments …

From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report

While traditionally the market sees a 70 percent increase in new listings from December to January, the market ended down 17.77 percent in new listings compared to 2021, a 31.04 increase from the previous month. Likewise, the market ended with month-end active listings at a historic low of 1,184. To put into context, that is over 10 times less inventory than normal. …

“Prices dropped slightly, both average and median, but that is not reflective of our current market but rather 90 days ago,” commented Andrew Abrams, Chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee and Metro Denver Realtor®. “Based on the historic low inventory and current market demand, prices will likely skyrocket in the next three months. With the low inventory and competition, we are expecting prices to greatly increase in the first half of this year.”

emphasis added 

From Las Vegas Realtors® A decade after hitting bottom, local housing market starts year with record home prices; LVR housing statistics for January 2022

A report released Tuesday by Las Vegas REALTORS® (LVR) shows the new year did little to change the trajectory of the local housing market, as home prices reached another record high amid a historically tight supply.  …

By the end of January, LVR reported 1,821 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s down 21.3% from the same time last year. The 322 condos and townhomes listed without offers in January represent a 62.0% decrease from one year earlier.
 
LVR reported a total of 3,272 existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold in January. Compared to one year ago, January sales were down 2.9% for homes, but up 13.9% for condos and townhomes.

From the Northwest MLS: Northwest MLS brokers see signs of busy spring market despite slow January

"When there's uncertainty, the default position for most sellers is to stay put, do nothing, and hunker down," suggested Mike Larson, managing broker at Compass Tacoma. He said many things are contributing to sellers' reluctance to put their homes on the market, "most notably, COVID, inflation, the economy, the holidays, and finding a replacement property. Security and certainty are more important than cashing in on record amounts of equity."

Active Inventory in January

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in January. Inventory was down 10.6% in January month-over-month (MoM) from December, and down 38.3% year-over-year (YoY).

Inventory almost always declines seasonally during the Winter, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 39.5% YoY, so the YoY decline in January is slightly smaller than in December. This isn’t indicating a slowing market.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle)

   

Please share with your friends and colleagues!

New Listings in January

And here is a table for new listings in January. For these areas, new listings were down 13.0% YoY.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 13.8% YoY.

Closed Sales in January

And a table of January sales. Sales were down 11.2% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Much more to come!