1st Look at Local Housing Markets in August

Sales and New Listings Down Sharply Year-over-year

This is the first look at local markets in August. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

We are seeing a sharp decline in closed sales, and inventory is up significantly year-over-year. Also, new listings are down as the sellers’ strike continues. The increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates.

Denver, Las Vegas, Memphis, Nashville, Northwest, San Diego and Santa Clara

Here are a few local comments …

From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report

All major statistical categories point towards the market slowing down. Days in the MLS went up 120 percent since last year at this time, and the close-price-to-list-price ratio dropped below 100 percent for the first time since July 2020, to 99.41 percent. Meanwhile, the median sales price decreased 2.54 percent from the previous month. 

emphasis added 

From Las Vegas Realtors® Las Vegas area home prices slip for third straight month, LVR housing statistics for August 2022

LVR reported that the median price of existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada through its Multiple Listing Service (MLS) during August was $450,000. That’s down from the all-time record price of $482,000 in May and down 3.2% from July. The median home price is still up 11.1% from $405,000 one year ago.

“Even though home prices have leveled off lately, they’re still up substantially from last year. When you combine that with rising mortgage interest rates and inflation, it’s no surprise to see some potential buyers sitting on the sidelines for now,” Roberts said. “At least buyers have more homes to choose from today. It has been about three years since we had this many homes available for sale here.”

From the Northwest MLS: Northwest MLS report shows "typical August," and return to more "normalized conditions

Similarly, the volume of closed sales fell from a year ago. MLS members recorded 7,998 completed transactions, improving 4.6% from July's total of 7,645. But last month's closings were down about 24% from the same month a year ago when members notched 10,571 closed sales.

"Last month's housing numbers certainly are eye-opening," stated Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. "However," he continued, "I believe they are simply indicating the market is trending back to the more normalized conditions that we were seeing before the pandemic."

Active Inventory in August

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in August.

Inventory in these markets were down 35% YoY in January, down 8% YoY in March, and are now up 79% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year, but only a slightly larger YoY increase than in July (up 76% YoY).

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle) and Santa Clara (San Jose)

New Listings in August

And here is a table for new listings in August. For these areas, new listings were down 13.8% YoY. The sellers’ strike has slowed the increase in active inventory.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 9.8% YoY.

Closed Sales in August

And a table of August sales.

In August, sales were down 26.1%. In July, these same markets were down 31.3% YoY.

Note that in August 2022, there was one more selling day than in August 2021, so the SA decline in August sales will be larger than the NSA decline. The opposite was true in July (one more selling day in July 2021 than in July 2022). So, seasonally adjusted, this is probably close to the same YoY decline as in July.

Many more local markets to come!