1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March

Closed Sales: 19th consecutive month with a YoY decline

This is the first look at local markets in March. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in March were mostly for contracts signed in January and February. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were over 6% for all of January and February - compared to 4% range the previous year - closed sales were down significantly year-over-year in March. However, the impact was probably not as severe as for closed sales in December and January (rates were the highest in October and November 2022 when contracts were signed for closing in December and January).

For review on mortgage rates, here is a table of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® data (includes points, so lower than the rate with no point rates).

The recent increase in mortgage rates will likely impact closed sales in April and May.

Median sales prices for single family homes were down 7.6% year-over year (YoY) in Las Vegas, down 7.5% in the Northwest, and down 6.3% YoY in Denver.

Local Comments

From the Northwest MLS: Brokers around Washington state say spring market is “finally showing up”

“We are experiencing a frenzied spring housing market,” remarked J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “Although fewer new listings are coming on the market and fewer overall transactions, the market is following a typical seasonal pattern,” he added, noting he expects to see increases in new listings over the coming months. “The luxury market is seeing strong buyer activity,” Scott also reported.

Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner also commented on the uptick in activity. “The spring housing market, which usually kicks off in February, finally showed up in March when new listings increased by significant numbers, month over month.” …

Prices overall were down about 7.5% from a year ago, dropping from $638,000 to $590,000, with considerable variation across the 26 counties in the NWMLS report.

emphasis added

Las Vegas REALTORS® (LVR): LVR reports local housing market staying remarkably steady; LVR housing statistics for March 2023

LVR reported that the median price of existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada through its Multiple Listing Service (MLS) during March was $425,000. That’s almost identical to the previous month and down 7.6% from $460,000 in March of 2022. It’s also down from the all-time record price of $482,000 in May of 2022.

The median price of local condos and townhomes sold in March was $260,000. That’s up 2.0% from the previous month, but down 3.7% from $270,000 in March of 2022. It’s also down from the all-time record price of $285,000 in May.

Active Inventory in March

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in March.

Inventory in these markets were down 7% YoY in March 2022 and are now up 84% YoY! So, this is a significant change from early 2022, although this is a much smaller YoY inventory increase than in February (up 129% YoY).

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose)

New Listings in March

And here is a table for new listings in March (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 32.0% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 33.8% YoY. The decline in new listing in March - for these areas - was about the same as the YoY decline in February.

Closed Sales in March

And a table of March sales.

In March, sales in these markets were down 26.5%. In February, these same markets were down 24.3% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a slightly larger YoY decline NSA than in February for these early reporting markets. The March existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline, and the 19th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

This was a just a few early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!