1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

Early Reporting Markets suggest Sales at New Cycle Low in September

This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in September were mostly for contracts signed in July and August. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6.8% range in July, and 7.1% in August, compared to the low-5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in September.

For review on mortgage rates, here is a table of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® data (includes points, so lower than the rate with no points).

As of this morning, 30-year rates were pushing 8% - however, we will probably see some repricing this afternoon. This mortgage rate is from MortgageNewsDaily.com and is for top tier scenarios with zero points.

The higher rates in August and September, will likely impact closed sales in October and November, and a new cycle low seems likely (below the 4.00 million SAAR in January 2023).

Local Comments

Las Vegas REALTORS® (LVR): LVR reports home and condo prices same as one year ago; LVR housing statistics for September 2023

LVR reported that the median price of existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada through its Multiple Listing Service (MLS) during September was $450,000, matching the median price in September of 2022. Local home prices are still below the all-time record of $482,000 set in May of 2022.

Likewise, the median price of local condos and townhomes sold in September was $270,000, the same price as September of 2022. That’s down 5.9% from the all-time high of $287,000 set in August.

Active Inventory in September

Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in September.

Inventory surged in some of these markets last year, but that has changed.

For example, inventory in Denver was up 93% YoY in September 2022, and is now down 1% YoY. And inventory in Las Vegas was up 144% YoY in September 2022, and is now down 49% YoY. That is a HUGE change.

Inventory for these markets were down 16% YoY in August and are now down 12.5% YoY.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

   

New Listings in September