1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March

A Sea Change in Active Inventory

This is the first look at local markets in March (I mentioned Denver earlier). I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

My view is that if the housing market starts slowing, it will show up in inventory first. And we are seeing a change in inventory right now! (Likely due to higher mortgage rates)

The following data is important, especially active inventory. One of the key factors for house prices is supply and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.

On a national basis, we saw record low inventory levels over the Winter. It will be interesting to see if inventory increases month-over-month in March (indicating inventory bottomed in February). Last year, inventory didn’t bottom until early April.

Denver, Las Vegas, Nashville, Northwest, and San Diego

Here are a few local comments …

From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report

With a large increase in month-end active and new listings hitting the market, a slight seasonal shift will positively impact buyers who have started to feel fatigue in the residential market. At the same time, current homeowners continue their unprecedented growth in equity.

With a historically high average sales price of $705,812 and increased interest rates, many buyers who saw their potential monthly payments drastically increase received a sign of reprieve. Month-end active inventory went up 81.16 percent from February to March. The additional 995 new listings on the market at the end of the month also served to slightly aid the balance of supply and demand. While the percentage increase is substantially higher, having such low initial numbers yield a higher percent change. Along with the 43.57 percent increase in new listings, this will serve to help balance the accelerated price appreciation the market has recently seen. 

emphasis added 

From Las Vegas Realtors® Local home prices keep rising while fewer homes are selling; LVR housing statistics for March 2022

LVR reported a total of 4,205 existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold in March. While sales increased from February, March sales were down 12.2% for homes and down 6.5% for condos and townhomes compared to one year earlier.
 
By the end of March, LVR reported 2,005 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s up 13.1% from the same time last year. However, the 394 condos and townhomes listed without offers in March represent a 34.0% decrease from one year earlier.

From the Northwest MLS: Rising interest rates not yet slowing home sales or "too concerning" for NWMLS officials

Rising mortgage rates are not yet slowing home sales in most areas across Washington state, according to several brokers who commented on the latest statistical report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The report showed a 7.4% year-over-year drop in pending sales, but brokers suggested the decline is likely a reflection of limited supply.

The latest MLS report shows brokers added 11,197 new listings of single family homes and condominiums to inventory during March, up from the year-ago total of 10,562. Last month's total is up from February's figure of 7,920 for a gain of more than 41%. It also marked the highest volume of new listings added during a month since September 2021 when members added 11,373 listings.

Active Inventory in March

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in March. Note: Inventory usually increases seasonally in March, so the month-over-month (MoM) increase is not surprising.

Inventory was up 31.5% in March MoM from February, and down 1.0% year-over-year (YoY). The YoY decline in inventory in these markets was due entirely to San Diego (a very tight market). The other markets were up YoY.

This is early, and just a few markets, but it appears inventory has bottomed. Last month, these markets were down 26.1% YoY, so this is a significant change from February. This is the first step towards a more balanced market, but inventory levels are still very low.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle)

   

New Listings in March

And here is a table for new listings in March. For these areas, new listings were up 4.6% YoY.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 2.4% YoY. Once again, San Diego was the only one of these market down YoY in March.

Closed Sales in March

And a table of March sales. Sales in these areas were down 7.5% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Much more to come!