1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).
This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in January. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Closed sales in January were mostly for contracts signed in November and December when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.81% and 6.72%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in November, but down from the average rate of 7.1% in November and December 2023.
Active Inventory in January
Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets.
Inventory was up 38.3% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 26.2% YoY. December and January are seasonally the low months for inventory. The real key is what happens in March!
There are significant regional differences for inventory, with sharp increases in the South and Southeast (especially in Florida and Texas). These areas haven’t reported yet for January.
Comparing to January 2019, inventory is up in some areas and down sharply in San Diego.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
New Listings in January
And here is a table for new listings in January (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 23.7% year-over-year.
Last month, new listings in these markets were up 7.7% year-over-year.
New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in all of these areas are down compared to January 2019 activity.
Closed Sales in January
And a table of January sales.
In January, sales in these markets were up 6.4% YoY. Last month, in December, these same markets were up 17.1% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Note that most of these early reporting markets have shown stronger year-over-year sales than most other markets for the last several months.
Important: There were the same number of working days in January 2025 (21) as compared to January 2024 (21). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
Last month, There was one more working day in December 2024 (21) as compared to December 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was less than the NSA data suggested.
Sales in all of these markets are down compared to January 2019.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis. Last year, the NAR reported sales in January 2024 were at 4.00 million SAAR.
This early data suggests that the January existing home sales report might show a year-over-year increase. If so, this would be the fourth consecutive year-over-year gain following several years of year-over-year declines (since July 2021). Of course, sales will still be historically low, and mortgage rates have increased to around 7% recently, and this will likely depress sales in coming months.
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!