1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November
"2022 will be a wild and competitive ride"
This is the first look at local markets in November. I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
My view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory (not yet!).
The following data is important, especially active inventory and new listings. One of the key factors for house prices is supply and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.
On a national basis, it is possible inventory will be up year-over-year sometime during the winter months, but inventory will still be at very low levels. It is also possible that we will see record inventory lows over the Winter.
Denver, Las Vegas, Northwest (Seattle), and San Diego
Here are a few local comments …
From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report
From October to November, the market saw a staggering 33.41 percent decrease in month-end active inventory, dropping to 2,248. Throughout the entire Denver Metro area, there are currently only 1,444 single-family detached properties and 804 attached properties to buy.
Over the past five years, month-end active inventory dropped between 23.36 percent in 2016 and 27.92 percent in 2019. Theoretically, if inventory stayed the course and dropped 25 percent this year, the market would end the year at 1,686 active properties leading into 2022, which is drastically lower than the end of 2020 and would lead to the most competitive year yet. With 2,248 active listings on the market and that number expected to go down by the end of the month, expectations are set that 2022 will be a wild and competitive ride.
emphasis added
From Northwest Multiple Listing Service® Northwest MLS brokers not seeing much seasonal slowdown, say buyers still need to be bold
Historically soggy weather and the onset of holidays did not deter thousands of buyers and sellers during November, based on the latest report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Numbers for new listings, pending sales, and closed sales were comparable to year-ago totals, while prices rose a little more than 15%.
From Las Vegas Realtors® LVR report forecasts a warm winter for the local housing market; LVR housing statistics for November 2021
A report released Tuesday by Las Vegas REALTORS® (LVR) suggests the Southern Nevada housing market may be in store for an unseasonably warm winter. …
The local housing supply remains tight, with homes selling faster than in past years. Martinez said the current sales pace equates to less than a one-month supply of properties available for sale.
Active Inventory in November
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in November. Inventory was down 27.2% in November MoM from October, and down 36.3% YoY.
Inventory almost always declines seasonally in November, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these four markets were down 33% YoY, so the YoY decline in November is larger than in October. This isn’t indicating a slowing market.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (includes Seattle)
Please share with your friends and colleagues!New Listings in November
And here is a table for new listings in November. For these four areas, new listings were down 1.8% YoY (mostly San Diego).
Last month, new listings in these three markets were down 13.4%.
Closed Sales in November
And a table of November sales. Sales were down 1.6% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Sales in Las Vegas and in the Northwest were up in November.
Much more to come!