1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July

Sales Down Sharply, Inventory Up

This is the first look at local markets in July. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

We are seeing a significant change in inventory, but no pickup in new listings. Most of the increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates.

Denver, Las Vegas, Nashville, Northwest, San Diego and Santa Clara

Here are a few local comments …

From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report

Every indicator points to the market shifting closer to a buyer’s market. The month-end active listings increased 21.53 percent last month. Pending and closed deals decreased and days in the MLS increased by exactly 30 percent. However, the market is still far from what many experts would consider a buyer’s market.

emphasis added 

From Las Vegas Realtors® Local home prices post first monthly decline since 2020, LVR housing statistics for June 2022

A report released Tuesday by Las Vegas REALTORS® (LVR) shows local home prices dipping for the second straight month, with fewer homes selling and more available for sale. …

“We’re definitely seeing a shift in the housing market,” Roberts said. “We haven’t seen prices slow down like this in several years. And we haven’t had this many homes available for sale since the summer of 2019. This is encouraging news for people looking to buy a home – although rising interest rates and today’s prices still present challenges for many potential buyers.”

From the Northwest MLS: Brokers say all parties in housing transactions need to recalibrate during shifting market

New statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service confirm reports of a shifting housing market, prompting one industry leader to suggest "all parties involved in a transaction today have to recalibrate."

"Today's buyers have their cups finally overflowing with options as residential inventory grows to about two months of supply," said Dick Beeson, managing broker at RE/MAX Northwest Realtors in Gig Harbor.

Active listings have nearly doubled from a year ago, jumping from 7,948 offerings of single family homes and condos to 15,381 (up 93.5%). The addition of 11,805 new listings during the month contributed to the boost. Compared to June, the selection expanded by 1,976 listings (up 14.7%).

Active Inventory in July

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in July. Inventory usually increases seasonally in July, so some month-over-month (MoM) increase is not surprising. However, for these markets, inventory was up almost 17% from June to July.

Inventory in these markets were down 38% YoY in January, down 8% YoY in March, and are now up 81% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year. This is another step towards a more balanced market, but inventory levels are still historically low in most markets.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle) and Santa Clara (San Jose)

   

New Listings in July

And here is a table for new listings in July. For these areas, new listings were down 9.8% YoY.

Last month, new listings in these markets were up 3.1% YoY. Overall, we aren’t seeing a pickup in new listings in these markets. Some markets, like San Diego and Santa Clara, are seeing a significant decline in new listings.

Closed Sales in July

And a table of July sales. Sales in these areas were down 32.4% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Contracts for sales in July were mostly signed in May and June, and we are seeing the impact of higher mortgage rates on July closings.

Last month, these six markets were down 21.3% YoY NSA, so there appears to have been a significant further sales decline in July (this is just a few early markets).

Much more to come!