The key in 2022 will be inventory. If inventory stays extremely low, there will be more housing starts and a larger increase in prices. However, if inventory increases significantly, there will be fewer starts and less price appreciation.
Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.
For comparison, new home sales in 2021 will probably be around 800 thousand, down from 822 thousand in 2020, but up from 683 thousand in 2019.
Total housing starts will be around 1.58 million in 2021, up from 1.38 million in 2020, and up from 1.29 million in 2019.
Existing home sales will be around 6.1 million in 2021 , up from 5.64 million in 2020, and 5.34 million in 2019.
As of August, Case-Shiller house prices were up 19.8% year-over-year!
The table below shows a few forecasts for 2022:
These forecasts will be updated over the next couple of months, and I’ll also add a few more as they become available (and my own forecasts).
Here are links to the data:
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