2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August

Early Reporting Markets suggest Sales in August close to or below July SAAR

This is the second look at local markets in August. I’m tracking a sample of about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in August were mostly for contracts signed in June and July. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6.7% range in June, and 6.8% in July, compared to the mid-5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in August.

Active Inventory in August

Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in August.

Inventory surged in some of these markets last year, but that has changed.

For example, inventory in Denver was up 94% YoY in August 2022, and is now down 1% YoY. And inventory in Las Vegas was up 149% YoY in August 2022, and is now down 51% YoY. That is a HUGE change.

Inventory for these markets were down 13% YoY in July and are now down 12% YoY.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta (included in state total)

   

New Listings in August

And here is a table for new listings in August (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 12.4% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with the “golden handcuffs” of low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 24.9% YoY. The decline in new listing in August - for these areas - was smaller than the YoY decline for the last several months.

Closed Sales in August

And a table of August sales.

In August, sales in these markets were down 12.8%. In July, these same markets were down 13.7% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a slightly smaller YoY decline NSA than in July for these early reporting markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in August 2022 and August 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales steadily declined last year due to higher mortgage rates. This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis.

This early data suggests the August existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline - and probably close to or below the July sales rate of 4.07 million (SAAR) - and the 24th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

Many more local markets to come!