2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

Inventory in San Diego is at an all time low

This is the second look at local markets in October. This update adds Memphis, Nashville, New Hampshire, North Texas (Dallas) and San Diego.

I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

My view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory (not yet!).

The following data is important, especially active inventory and new listings. One of the key factors for house prices is supply, and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.

On a national basis, it is possible inventory will be up year-over-year sometime during the winter months, but inventory will still be at very low levels.

Active Inventory in October

Here is a summary of active listings for the housing markets that have reported so far in October. For these markets, inventory was down 9.6% in October MoM from September, and down 30.4% YoY.

Inventory in San Diego is at an all time low!

Inventory almost always declines seasonally in October, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these eight markets were down 27.4% YoY, so the YoY decline in October is larger than in September. This is not indicating a slowing market (but this is just 8 early reporting markets).

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas), and Santa Clara (San Jose)

3. Totals do not include Atlanta or Denver (included in state totals).

   

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New Listings in October

And here is a table for new listings in October. For these areas, new listings were down 11.4% YoY (San Diego was down sharply).

Last month, new listings in these markets was down 4.3% YoY.

Note: Not all areas report new listings.

Closed Sales in October

And a table of October sales. Sales for these markets were down 8.8% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

There is much more to come!!!

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