2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

Adding Albuquerque, Atlanta, Colorado, Des Moines, Georgia, Houston, Jacksonville, New Hampshire, Portland, Sacramento

Important on Houston Market

From the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR): February Is a Strong Month for Houston Home Sales (Sales up sharply due partially to the freeze in February 2021)

Home sales scored double-digit gains in February, but part of the strong showing was because the statistics compared to last February, when that deadly Texas freeze halted real estate activity for days, and in some cases, even longer. Undistorted by the weather factor were the continued squeeze on inventory, which returned to its all-time low, and pricing, which due to limited supply and ongoing consumer demand, soared to record highs. 

emphasis added

Adding Albuquerque, Atlanta, Colorado, Des Moines, Georgia, Houston, Jacksonville, New Hampshire, Portland, Sacramento

This is the second look at local markets in February. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

My view is that if the housing market starts slowing, it will show up in inventory first.

The following data is important, especially active inventory. One of the key factors for house prices is supply and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.

On a national basis, we saw record low inventory over the Winter. I’ll be watching to see if inventory follows the normal seasonal pattern and bottoms in February. Last year, inventory didn’t bottom until April.

Active Inventory in February

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in February. Inventory was down 6.3% in February month-over-month (MoM) from January, and down 22.9% year-over-year (YoY).

It appears inventory has bottomed seasonally in some areas. Last month, these markets were down 25.3% YoY, so the YoY decline in February is smaller than in January. This isn’t indicating a slowing market, but maybe a few baby steps towards a more balanced market in some areas.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas), and Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, and Denver (included in state totals).

   

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New Listings in February

And here is a table for new listings in February. For these areas, new listings were down 1.6% YoY.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 11.3% YoY. This is a significant change.

Closed Sales in February

And a table of February sales. Sales in these areas were down 2.0% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Note: The Houston market was up 25.6% year-over-year due to the freeze in February 2021.

Much more to come!