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2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Adding Houston, Jacksonville, Nashville, New Hampshire, North Texas, Portland and Santa Clara
This is the second look at local markets in November. I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
My view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory (not yet!).
The following data is important, especially active inventory and new listings. One of the key factors for house prices is supply and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.
On a national basis, it is possible inventory will be up year-over-year sometime during the winter months, but inventory will still be at very low levels. It is also possible that we will see record inventory lows over the Winter.
“No Thanksgiving break for Houston Housing”
A local comment from the Houston Association of Realtors® (HAR): THERE’S NO THANKSGIVING BREAK FOR HOUSTON HOUSING
Despite the Thanksgiving holiday, Houston housing never skipped a beat in November as buyers steered the market through positive territory even as inventory hovered at historically low levels. Renters also brought much-needed business back to the lease market following slight declines in October.
Active Inventory in November
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in November. Inventory was down 15.8% in November month-over-month (MoM) from October, and down 25.0% year-over-year (YoY).
Inventory almost always declines seasonally in November, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 23.3% YoY, so the YoY decline in November is larger than in October. This isn’t indicating a slowing market.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas), and Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Please share with your friends and colleagues!
New Listings in November
And here is a table for new listings in November. For these four areas, new listings were up 0.1% YoY. Note that not all areas report new listings.
Last month, new listings in these markets were down 10.7% YoY.
Closed Sales in November
And a table of November sales. Sales were up 1.3% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
This is solid sales in the areas that have reported so far for November.
Much more to come!