2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

Another Year-over-year Sales Gain in November

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the second look at local markets in November. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in November were mostly for contracts signed in September and October when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.18% and 6.43%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). These were the lowest mortgage rates in 2 years!

Months of Supply

Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Note the regional differences, especially in Florida and Texas (although November statistics in Florida were likely still impacted by Hurricane Milton).

Active Inventory in November

Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets.

Inventory was up 26.0% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 32.2% YoY. A key for house prices will be the level of inventory over the Winter.

There are significant regional differences for inventory, with sharp increases in the South and Southeast (especially in Florida and Texas).

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to tables in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta or Denver (included in state totals)

4. Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!

New Listings in November

And here is a table for new listings in November (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 6.0% year-over-year.

Last month, new listings in these markets were up 9.5% year-over-year.

New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in most of these areas are down compared to November 2019 activity.

Closed Sales in November

And a table of November sales.

In November, sales in these markets were up 5.8% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were up 5.0% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There was one fewer working day in November 2024 (19) as compared to November 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will better than the NSA data suggests (there are other seasonal factors).

Last month, there was one more working day in October 2024 (22) as in October 2023 (21), so seasonally adjusted sales were not as strong year-over-year as NSA sales.

Sales in all of these markets are down significantly compared to November 2019.

This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis. Last year, the NAR reported sales in November 2023 at 3.91 million SAAR.

This early data suggests that the November existing home sales report will show a year-over-year increase. This will be the second year-over-year gain since July 2021 (last month was the first). Of course, sales will still be historically low, and mortgage rates have increased recently, are close to 7%, and this might depress sales in coming months.

Many more local markets to come!