2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

Sales and New Listings Down Year-over-year, Inventory Up

This is the second look at local markets in September. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

We are seeing a sharp decline in closed sales, and inventory is up significantly year-over-year. Also, new listings are down as the sellers’ strike continues. The increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand because of higher mortgage rates.

Active Inventory in September

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in September.

Active inventory in these markets were down 26% YoY in January and are now up 53% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year, and this is a larger YoY increase than in August (up 46% YoY for these markets).

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta or Denver (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in September

And here is a table for new listings in September. For these areas, new listings were down 11.9% YoY. The sellers’ strike (buyers locked in with low mortgage rates) has slowed the increase in active inventory.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 9.8% YoY.

Closed Sales in September

And a table of September sales.

In September, sales were down 22.5%. In August, sales in these same markets were down 20.2% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that in September 2022, there were the same number of selling days as in September 2021, so the SA decline will be similar to the NSA decline. Last month, in August 2022, there was one more selling day than in August 2021 - so seasonally adjusted, the decline in sales in September will be about the same as in August for these markets.

Closed sales in September were mostly for contracts signed in July and August when 30-year mortgage rates averaged about 5.3%. Rates increased to around 6% in September and that will impact closed sales in October and November. In early October 30-year rates have jumped to over 7%.

Many more local markets to come!