2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
Adding Jacksonville, New Hampshire, North Texas, Portland, and Northwest (Seattle)
This is the second look at local markets in December. I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
My view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory (not yet!).
The following data is important, especially active inventory and new listings. One of the key factors for house prices is supply and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.
On a national basis, we will see record low inventory over the Winter. I’ll be watching to see if inventory follows the normal seasonal pattern and bottoms in January or February.
“You can't sell what isn't there.”
A local comment from the Northwest MLS: Northwest MLS brokers end 2021 with depleted inventory, rising prices, weather disruptions
Severe shortages of inventory, record-low temperatures and snow restrained December housing activity around Washington state beyond expected seasonal slowdowns, according to a new report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. …
Commenting on the slowdown in sales, Dick Beeson, managing broker at RE/MAX Northwest Realtors, said, "That's to be expected considering inventory in the fourth quarter was down sharply from last year. You can't sell what isn't there."
Altos Research Inventory for January 7th
Altos Research releases market data every Monday. The following graph is courtesy of Altos Research and shows national active inventory for single-family houses.
As of January 7th, inventory was at 292 thousand (7-day average), compared to 397 thousand for the same week a year ago. That is a decline of 26.0%. Inventory was down 0.5% from the previous week.
A week ago, inventory was at 294 thousand, and was down 30.0% YoY. The YoY decline this week was smaller than last week, and that might be a sign that inventory will bottom seasonally in January or February this year.
Active Inventory in December
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in December. Inventory was down 22.7% in December month-over-month (MoM) from November, and down 34.2% year-over-year (YoY).
Inventory almost always declines seasonally in December, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 30.5% YoY, so the YoY decline in December is larger than in November. This isn’t indicating a slowing market.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Please share with your friends and colleagues!New Listings in December
And here is a table for new listings in December. For these areas, new listings were down 9.4% YoY.
Last month, new listings in these three markets were up 1.0% YoY.
Closed Sales in December
And a table of December sales. Sales were down 8.6% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Note that there was one fewer selling day in December ‘21 compared to December ‘20, so the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) number will show less of a YoY decline than the NSA numbers.
Much more to come!