2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

Another step down in sales

This is the second look at local markets in October. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in October were mostly for contracts signed in August and September. Mortgage rates moved higher in September, and that impacted closed sales in October.

The further sharp increase in mortgage rates in October - with the 30-year mortgage over 7% - will impact closed sales in November and December.

Active Inventory in October

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in October.

Inventory in these markets were down 30% YoY in January, down 4% YoY in April, and are now up 61% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year, and a larger YoY inventory increase than in September (up 52% YoY).

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in October

And here is a table for new listings in October. For these areas, new listings were down 17.3% YoY. Potential sellers locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 13.3% YoY.

Closed Sales in October

And a table of October sales.

In October, sales were down 29.2%. In September, these same markets were down 24.1% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that in October 2022, there were the same number of selling days as in October 2021, so the SA decline will be similar to the NSA decline. And this suggests another step down in sales!

Many more local markets to come!