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2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May
This is the second look at local markets in May. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Closed sales in May were mostly for contracts signed in March and April. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6% to 6.5% range in March and April - compared to the 4% to 5% range the previous year - closed sales were down significantly year-over-year in May.
Active Inventory in May
Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in April.
Inventory in these markets were up 118% YoY in January and are now only up 31% YoY. This is a significant change.
Inventory for these markets were up 59% in April and it is likely that inventory in these markets will be down YoY in June or July.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta (included in state totals)
New Listings in May
And here is a table for new listings in May (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 20.5% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.
Last month, new listings in these markets were down 21.2% YoY. The decline in new listing in May - for these areas - was about the same as the YoY decline in April.
Closed Sales in May
And a table of May sales.
In May, sales in these markets were down 16.2%. In April, these same markets were down 23.6% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in April for these markets, however seasonally adjusted, it is closer since there was one less selling day in April this year than in April 2022, but the same number of selling days each year in May.
Another factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates. This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis.
If sales were steady all year, the YoY decline would still decrease!
This early data suggests the May existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline - probably close to the April sales rate (SA) - and the 21st consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.
Many more local markets to come!
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