2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

Likely Sales up Year-over-year for 3rd Consecutive Month

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in December. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in December were mostly for contracts signed in October and November when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.43% and 6.81%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in November, but down from the average rate of 7.5% in October and November 2023.

Months of Supply

Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely this will be the seasonal low for months-of-supply.

Note the regional differences with more months-of-supply in the South, especially in Florida and Texas.

Active Inventory in December

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets.

Inventory was up 28.4% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 27.4% YoY.

There are significant regional differences for inventory, with sharp increases in the South and Southeast (especially in Florida and Texas).

Comparing to December 2019, inventory is up in several areas and down sharply in San Diego.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to tables in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta (included in state total)

4. Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!

New Listings in December

And here is a table for new listings in December (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 12.0% year-over-year.

Last month, new listings in these markets were up 5.2% year-over-year.

New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in all of these areas are down compared to December 2019 activity.

Closed Sales in December

And a table of December sales.

In December, sales in these markets were up 14.2% YoY. Last month, in November, these same markets were up 6.5% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that many of these early reporting markets have shown stronger year-over-year sales than most markets (for the last several months).

Important: There was one more working day in December 2024 (21) as compared to December 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will less than the NSA data suggests (there are other seasonal factors).

Last month, there was one fewer working day in November 2024 (19) as compared to November 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was better than the NSA data suggested.

Sales in all of these markets are down compared to December 2019.

This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis. Last year, the NAR reported sales in December 2023 at 3.88 million SAAR.

This early data suggests that the December existing home sales report will show a year-over-year increase. If so, this would be the third consecutive year-over-year gain following several years of year-over-year declines (since July 2021). Of course, sales will still be historically low, and 30-year mortgage rates have increased recently, are over 7%, and this will likely depress sales in coming months.

Many more local markets to come!