2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July

Local Market Data Suggests July Sales Rate Close to June Sales Rate

This is the second look at local markets in July. I’m tracking a sample of about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6.4% range in May, and 6.7% in June, compared to the low-to-mid 5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in July.

Active Inventory in July

Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in July.

Inventory surged in some of these markets last year, but that has changed.

For example, inventory in Denver was up 81% YoY in July 2022, and is now down 14% YoY. And inventory in Las Vegas was up 144% YoY in July 2022, and is now down 41% YoY. That is a HUGE change.

Inventory for these markets were up 4% in June and are now down 8% YoY.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta or Denver (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in July

And here is a table for new listings in July (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 21.5% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 23.4% YoY. The decline in new listing in July - for these areas - was similar to the YoY decline for the last several months.

Closed Sales in July

And a table of July sales.

In July, sales in these markets were down 13.9%. In June, these same markets were down 15.9% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in June for these markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in July 2022 and July 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates. This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis.

This data suggests the July existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline - and probably close to the June sales rate of 4.16 million (SAAR) - and the 23rd consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

Many more local markets to come!