3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to March 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).
This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Closed sales in March were mostly for contracts signed in January and February when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.44% and 6.78%, respectively. This is down from the 7%+ mortgage rates in the August through November period (although rates are now back in the 7%+ range again).
Active Inventory in March
Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets.
Inventory for these markets were up 20.1% year-over-year in February and are now up 22.6% year-over-year. A key will be how much inventory builds over the next few months.
Inventory is down sharply in most of these areas compared to 2019.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta and Denver (included in state total)
Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!
New Listings in March
And here is a table for new listings in March (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 5.9% year-over-year.
Last month, new listings in these markets were up 26.4% year-over-year.
New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in most of these areas are down compared to January 2019 activity.
Closed Sales in March
And a table of March sales.
In March, sales in these markets were down 9.2% YoY. In February, these same markets were up 2.2% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Sales in most of these markets are down compared to January 2019.
This is a year-over-year decrease NSA for these early reporting markets. However, there were two fewer working days in March 2024 compared to March 2023, so sales Seasonally Adjusted will be higher year-over-year than Not Seasonally Adjusted sales.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis. The NAR reported sales in March 2023 were 4.35 million SAAR.
This data suggests that the March existing home sales report will likely show a decrease from the February rate, and a small decline from the 2023 March sales rate. If sales increased YoY in March, this will be the first YoY increase since August 2021, following 30 consecutive months with a YoY decline in sales.
More local markets to come!