3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in December. Last year, the NAR reported sales in January 2024 at 4.00 million SAAR.

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the third look at local markets in January. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in January were mostly for contracts signed in November and December when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.81% and 6.72%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in November, but down from the average rate of 7.1% in November and December 2023.

Months of Supply

Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely this will be near the seasonal low for months-of-supply.

Months in red are areas that will likely see over 6 months of supply later this year.

Active Inventory in January

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets.

Inventory was up 30.3% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 25.3% YoY. December and January are seasonally the low months for inventory. The real key is what happens in March!

Note the regional differences. For example, inventory is up sharply in Jacksonville, and down significantly in New Hampshire.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to tables in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta and Denver (included in state totals)

4. Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!

New Listings in January

And here is a table for new listings in January (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 16.1% year-over-year.

Last month, new listings in these markets were up 8.3% year-over-year.

New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in most of these areas are down compared to January 2019 activity (Jacksonville and Phoenix are exceptions).

Closed Sales in January

And a table of January sales.

In January, sales in these markets were up 2.6% YoY. Last month, in December, these same markets were up 12.2% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in January 2025 (21) as compared to January 2024 (21). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).

Last month, there was one more working day in December 2024 (21) as compared to December 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was less than the NSA data suggested.

Sales in all of these markets are down compared to January 2019.

Last year, the NAR reported sales in January 2024 were at 4.00 million SAAR. This data suggests that the January existing home sales report might show a year-over-year increase. If so, this would be the fourth consecutive year-over-year gain following several years of year-over-year declines (since July 2021). Of course, sales will still be historically low, and mortgage rates have increased to around 7% recently, and this will likely depress sales in coming months.

More local markets to come!