Discover more from CalculatedRisk Newsletter
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October
Markets reporting so far suggest sales close to 4 million SAAR in October
NOTE: Starting next month, I’ll add some comparisons to 2019 data (pre-pandemic)!
This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in October. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Closed sales in October were mostly for contracts signed in August and September. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 7.1% in August and 7.2% in September, compared to the high-5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in October.
Active Inventory in October
Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in October.
Inventory for these markets were down 3.9% YoY in September and are now down 2.1% YoY. Inventory will likely be up YoY soon.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta or Denver (included in state totals)
New Listings in October
And here is a table for new listings in October (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 1.3% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.
Last month, new listings in these markets were down 7.8% YoY. New listings collapsed a year ago as mortgage rates increased, and based on the recent trend, it is likely new listings will be up YoY soon, but still at historically low levels. New listings in some areas, like Houston, are back to pre-pandemic levels. According to the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR): “New listings were up 3.3 percent versus the 2019 level of 10,905”.
Closed Sales in October
And a table of October sales.
In October, sales in these markets were down 9.5%. In September, these same markets were down 15.3% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in September for these markets. However, this is where seasonal adjustments make a difference.
There was one more working day in October 2023 compared to October 2022, the opposite of September when there was one fewer working day in 2023 compared to 2022. So, for October, the seasonally adjusted decline will be larger than the NSA decline.
The data so far suggests the October existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline, perhaps close to 4 million SAAR (early guess of Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), and maybe slightly above the cycle low of 3.96 million SAAR last month. This will be the 26th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.
Note that the low during the housing bust was 3.30 million in July 2010.
More local markets to come!
CalculatedRisk Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.