Discover more from CalculatedRisk Newsletter
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August
Sales and New Listings Down Sharply Year-over-year
This is the third look at local markets in August. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
The big story for August existing home sales is the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story is that new listings are down YoY in August as the sellers’ strike continues. Of course, active listings are up sharply YoY, but inventory growth has stalled. The increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand, likely because of higher mortgage rates.
Active Inventory in August
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in August.
Inventory in these markets were down 29% YoY in January, down 4% YoY in April, and are now up 44% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year, but about the same YoY increase as in July (up 45% YoY).
Note that active inventory in some previous hot markets like Austin (168%), Las Vegas (149%) and Phoenix (159%) is up triple digits YoY.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver, or Minneapolis (included in state totals)
New Listings in August
And here is a table for new listings in August. For these areas, new listings were down 10.6% YoY. The sellers’ strike has slowed the increase in active inventory.
Last month, new listings in these markets were down 6.8% YoY.
Closed Sales in August
And a table of August sales. In August, sales in these markets were down 19.6% YoY. Contracts for sales in August were mostly signed in June and July, and we are seeing the impact of higher mortgage rates on August closings.
Here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely, and the preliminary data below suggests a sharp decline in sales in August.
Note that in August 2022, there was one more selling day than in August 2021, so the SA decline in August sales will be larger than the NSA decline. The opposite was true in July (one more selling day in July 2021 than in July 2022). So, seasonally adjusted, this is probably close to the same YoY decline as in July.
Sales in some of the hottest markets are down around 30% YoY (all of California was down 24%), whereas in other markets, sales are only down in the teens YoY.
More local markets to come!
CalculatedRisk Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.