3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

Looks like we will see new record low inventories this winter

This is the third look at local markets in November. I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

My view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory (not yet!).

The following data is important, especially active inventory and new listings. One of the key factors for house prices is supply and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.

On a national basis, it is possible inventory will be up year-over-year sometime during the winter months, but inventory will still be at very low levels.

However, it now seems likely we will see record inventory lows over the Winter.

Active Inventory in November

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in November. Inventory was down 14.7% in November month-over-month (MoM) from October, and down 28.7% year-over-year (YoY).

Inventory almost always declines seasonally in November, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 25.4% YoY, so the YoY decline in November is larger than in October. This isn’t indicating a slowing market.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas), and Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Denver (included in state totals).

   

Please share with your friends and colleagues!

New Listings in November

And here is a table for new listings in November. For these areas, new listings were down 0.3% YoY. Note that not all areas report new listings.

Closed Sales in November

And a table of November sales. Sales were up 1.0% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is solid sales in the areas that have reported so far for November.

Much more to come!