3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

This is the third look at local markets in May. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in May were mostly for contracts signed in March and April. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6% to 6.5% range in March and April - compared to the 4% to 5% range the previous year - closed sales were down significantly year-over-year in May.

Active Inventory in May

Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in May.

Inventory in these markets were up 93% YoY in January and are now only up 20% YoY. This is a significant change.

Inventory for these markets were up 41% in April and it is likely that inventory in these markets will be down YoY in June or July.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in May

And here is a table for new listings in May (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 19.7% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 22.6% YoY. The decline in new listing in May - for these areas - was somewhat less than the YoY decline in April.

Closed Sales in May

And a table of May sales.

In May, sales in these markets were down 16.3%. In April, these same markets were down 24.9% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in April for these markets, however seasonally adjusted, it is closer. Another factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates.

This data suggests the May existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline and the 21st consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

More local markets to come!