3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
California Home Sales Up 19.8% SA YoY in December
The NAR is scheduled to release December Existing Home sales on Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million in November. Last year, the NAR reported sales in December 2023 at 3.88 million SAAR. This will be the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase following YoY declines every month since July 2021.
Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.15 million SAAR for December.
This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in December. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released. The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).
Closed sales in December were mostly for contracts signed in October and November when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.43% and 6.81%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in November, but down from the average rate of 7.5% in October and November 2023.
California Home Sales Up 19.8% YoY in December
California doesn’t report monthly inventory numbers, but they do report sales and the change in months of inventory.
From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California housing market closes the year strong despite challenges, C.A.R. reports
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 268,180 in December, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2024 if sales maintained the December pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
December’s sales pace was essentially unchanged from the 267,800 homes sold in November but was up 19.8 percent from a year ago, when a revised 223,940 homes were sold on an annualized basis. Despite a double-digit annual growth rate, sales of existing single-family homes remained below the pre-Covid norm of 400,000 units (seasonally adjusted and annualized). The strong year-over-year gain observed in December was largely due to low-base effects once again, as home sales in December 2023 dropped to their lowest level since late 2007. … Sales of existing single-family homes in 2024 totaled 269,030, a 4.3 percent improvement from the year prior, marking the first gain in three years. …
The statewide Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, decreased month-over-month but edged up from a year ago. The index was 2.7 months in December, down from 3.3 months in November but up from 2.6 months in December 2023. With market activity likely to slow in the coming months as mortgage rates spike back up to the highest levels in months, housing inventory at the statewide level could inch up further in the first quarter. Southern California, on the other hand, could experience some adverse effects on supply in the next few months due to the devastating wildfires but could see some improvement in the second half of 2025. …
emphasis added
Months of Supply
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely this will be the seasonal low for months-of-supply.
Note the regional differences with more months-of-supply in the South, especially in Florida and Texas.
Active Inventory in December
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets.
Inventory was up 22.0% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets were also up 22.0% YoY.
There are significant regional differences for inventory, with sharp increases in the South and Southeast (especially in Florida and Texas).
Comparing to December 2019, inventory is up in several areas and down sharply in Maryland, Rhode Island and San Diego.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to tables in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta and Denver (included in state totals)
Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!
New Listings in December
And here is a table for new listings in December (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 7.6% year-over-year. Note that December is usually the slowest month for new listings due to the holidays.
Last month, new listings in these markets were up 3.0% year-over-year.
New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in all of these areas are down compared to December 2019 activity.
Closed Sales in December
And a table of December sales.
In December, sales in these markets were up 13.2% YoY. Last month, in November, these same markets were up 6.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Important: There was one more working day in December 2024 (21) as compared to December 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will less than the NSA data suggests (there are other seasonal factors).
Last month, there was one fewer working day in November 2024 (19) as compared to November 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was better than the NSA data suggested.
Sales in all of these markets are down compared to December 2019.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis. Last year, the NAR reported sales in December 2023 at 3.88 million SAAR.
This data suggests that the December existing home sales report will show a year-over-year increase. This will be the third consecutive year-over-year gain following several years of year-over-year declines (since July 2021). Of course, sales will still be historically low, and 30-year mortgage rates have increased recently, are over 7%, and this will likely depress sales in coming months.
More local markets to come!