3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July, Sales Down Sharply

The big story for July existing home sales is the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story is that new listings are down YoY in July. Of course, active listings are up sharply.

This is the third look at local markets in July. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

We are seeing a significant change in inventory, but a decline in new listings. Most of the increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates.

Active Inventory in July

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in July. Inventory usually increases seasonally in July, so some month-over-month (MoM) increase is not surprising. However, for these markets, inventory was up 14% from June to July.

Inventory in these markets were down 30% YoY in January, still down 16% YoY in March, and are now up 41% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year. This is another step towards a more balanced market, but inventory levels are still historically low in most markets.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Mid-Florida (Tampa, Orlando), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in July

And here is a table for new listings in July. For these areas, new listings were down 6.5% YoY.

Last month, new listings in these markets were up 5.0% YoY. Overall, we aren’t seeing a pickup in new listings in these markets. In most markets, new listings are down YoY. This suggests the increase in active listings is due to less demand as opposed to more sellers.

Closed Sales in July

And a table of July sales. Sales in these areas were down 23.9% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Contracts for sales in July were mostly signed in May and June, and we are seeing the impact of higher mortgage rates on July closings.

Last month, all local markets I track were down 15.9% YoY, NSA. This appears to be another step down in sales, although there was one less selling day in July this year than in July 2021.

Here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely, and the preliminary data below suggests a sharp decline in sales in July.

Sales in some of the hottest markets are down 30% or more YoY, whereas in other markets, sales are only down in the high teens YoY.

More local markets to come!