3rd Look at Local Housing Markets

Adding Austin, Boston, California, Colorado, Des Moines, Maryland, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Sacramento, South Carolina and Washington, D.C.

This is the third look at local markets in April. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

We are seeing a significant change in inventory, but there is no surge in new listings. This means the increase in inventory is due to a decrease in demand, likely because of higher mortgage rates.

The following data is important, especially active inventory. On a national basis, we saw record low inventory levels over the Winter. Last year, inventory didn’t bottom seasonally until early April.

This year inventory bottomed in February (normal seasonal timing). The next milestone will be when inventory is up year-over-year (YoY). Note: Both Realtor.com and Altos Research have reported inventory is up year-over-year in early May, but this data is for April.

California Home Sales, Prices and Inventory in April

California doesn’t report monthly sales or inventory, but here is the press release from the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Rising interest rates and climbing home prices moderate California home sales in April as statewide median price sets another peak, C.A.R. reports

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 419,040 in April, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. … April’s sales pace was down 1.9 percent on a monthly basis from 426,970 in March and down 8.5 percent from a year ago, when 458,170 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The month-to-month April sales decline is in line with the long-run change of -1.6 percent recorded between March and April. The annual sales drop, however, was the biggest decline in the last four months. On a year-to-date basis, sales were down 7.4 percent in April.

California’s median home price set another record in April at $884,890 — surpassing the record of $849,080 set just the previous month. The April price was 4.2 percent higher than the $849,080 recorded in March and 8.7 percent higher than the $814,010 recorded last April. The year-over-year increase was the smallest since June 2020 but was strong enough to establish a new peak price for the state. The month-to-month percent change was higher than the long run average of 2.3 percent recorded between a March and an April in the last 43 years.

The number of active listings surged more than 20 percent on a year-over-year basis and recorded the highest yearly growth in properties for sale since January 2019. Active listings in April climbed to the highest level in seven months

emphasis added

Active Inventory in April

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in April. Note: Inventory usually increases seasonally in April, so some month-over-month (MoM) increase is not surprising.

Inventory was up 18.0% in April MoM from March, and down 3.2% year-over-year (YoY). Eleven of these 25 markets were up YoY.

Active inventory in these markets were down 23.5% YoY in February, and down 11.9% YoY in March, so this is a significant change from February and March. This is another step towards a more balanced market, but inventory levels are still very low.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas) and Santa Clara (San Jose), Mid-Florida (Tampa, Orlando), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Denver, Atlanta on Minneapolis (included in state totals).

   

New Listings in April

And here is a table for new listings in April. For these areas, new listings were down 5.4% YoY.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 1.0% YoY. We aren’t seeing a surge in new listings in these markets. For months-of-supply to increase sharply, we’d need to see an increase in new listings AND a decrease in sales.

Closed Sales in April

And a table of April sales. Sales in these areas were down 9.8% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

More to come!