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4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Looks like we will see new record low inventories this winter
This is the fourth look at local markets in November. I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
This update adds Austin, California, Des Moines, Memphis, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Sacramento.
My view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory (not yet!).
The following data is important, especially active inventory and new listings. One of the key factors for house prices is supply and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.
On a national basis, it is possible inventory will be up year-over-year sometime during the winter months, but inventory will still be at very low levels.
However, it now seems likely we will see record inventory lows over the Winter.
California November Home Sales
The California Association of Realtors® (CAR) doesn’t release inventory statistics, however inventory is down 22.4% year-over-year. Here is the press release: California housing market defies higher interest rates and inventory crunch in November, as recovering economy provides support, C.A.R. reports
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 454,450 in November, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
November’s sales pace rose 4.7 percent on a monthly basis from 434,170 in October and was down 10.7 percent from a year ago, when 508,820 homes were sold on an annualized basis. Despite the fifth straight year-over-year sales decrease, statewide home sales maintained a 10.6 percent increase on a year-to-date basis. …
California’s Unsold Inventory Index (UII) dipped on a month-to-month basis for the second straight month, as active listings fell 22.4 percent from last year. November’s UII was 1.6 months and was below 1.9 months in the same month of2020. The index indicates the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current rate of sales.
Active Inventory in November
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in November. Inventory was down 15.3% in November month-over-month (MoM) from October, and down 26.7% year-over-year (YoY).
Inventory almost always declines seasonally in November, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 23.4% YoY, so the YoY decline in November is larger than in October. This isn’t indicating a slowing market.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas), and Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals).
Please share with your friends and colleagues!
New Listings in November
And here is a table for new listings in November. For these areas, new listings were up 0.8% YoY. Note that not all areas report new listings.
This is essentially the same level of new listings as a year ago.
Closed Sales in November
And a table of November sales. Sales were up 0.3% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
This is solid sales in the areas that have reported so far for November. There is one more working day in November this year compared to 2020, so even though sales are mostly unchanged NSA, sales will likely be down SA.
More to come!