4th Look at Local Housing Markets in October

The NAR is scheduled to release October existing home sales tomorrow

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release October existing home sales on Tuesday, November 21, 2023, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 3.93 million SAAR. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.94 million SAAR. This would be a new cycle low, below the 4.00 million SAAR in January 2023.

NOTE: Starting next month, I’ll add some comparisons to 2019 data (pre-pandemic)!

This is the fourth look at several early reporting local markets in October. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in October were mostly for contracts signed in August and September. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 7.1% in August and 7.2% in September, compared to the high-5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in October.

Active Inventory in October

Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in October.

Inventory for these markets were down 5.3% YoY in September and are now down 3.4% YoY. Inventory, based on a survey of local markets, will likely be up YoY soon.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Minneapolis or Denver (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in October

And here is a table for new listings in October (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 1.0% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 8.2% YoY. New listings collapsed a year ago as mortgage rates increased, and based on the recent trend, it is likely new listings will be up YoY soon, but still at historically low levels. New listings in some areas, like Houston, are back to pre-pandemic levels.

Closed Sales in October

And a table of October sales.

In October, sales in these markets were down 9.4%. In September, these same markets were down 15.7% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in September for these markets. However, this is where seasonal adjustments make a difference.

There was one more working day in October 2023 compared to October 2022, the opposite of September when there was one fewer working day in 2023 compared to 2022. So, for October, the seasonally adjusted decline will be larger than the NSA decline. This will be the 26th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

Note that the low during the housing bust was 3.30 million in July 2010.

Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.