4th Look at Local Housing Markets in July

A few more local markets prior to the NAR release

Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release July existing home sales tomorrow, Tuesday, August 22nd, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, down from 4.16 million last month. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.06 million SAAR for July.

This is the fourth look at local markets in July. I’m tracking a sample of about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6.4% range in May, and 6.7% in June, compared to the low-to-mid 5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in July.

Active Inventory in July

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in July.

Inventory for these markets were up 1% YoY in June and is now down 10% YoY.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in July

And here is a table for new listings in July (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 22.5% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 24.6% YoY. The decline in new listing in July - for these areas - was similar to the YoY decline for the last several months.

Closed Sales in July

And a table of July sales.

In July, sales in these markets were down 15.0%. In June, these same markets were down 16.8% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in June for these markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in July 2022 and July 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates - and sales in July on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis will likely be close to 4.06 million.

Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.