4th Look at Local Housing Markets in August

California Home Sales Down 18.9% YoY in August

Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release August existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, September 21st, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is the NAR will report sales of 4.10 million SAAR, up from 4.07 million in July.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.07 million SAAR for August.

California Home Sales Down 18.9% YoY in August

California doesn’t report monthly inventory numbers, but they do report sales and the change in months of inventory.

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California median home price reaches highest level in 15 months as elevated interest rates weaken home sales further in August, C.A.R. reports

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 254,740 in August, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the August pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

August’s sales pace was down 5.3 percent on a monthly basis from a revised 268,940 in July and down 18.9 percent from a year ago, when a revised 314,270 homes were sold on an annualized basis. Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 300,000-unit pace for the 11th month in a row. The monthly decline was the third consecutive decrease, and the annual decline was the 26th straight drop. …

Home prices rose again from the year-ago level for the second straight month, as the statewide median price recorded the biggest year-over-year gain in 14 months. California’s statewide median price climbed 3.3 percent from July’s revised $832,400 to $859,800 in August and rose 3.0 percent from $834,740 a year ago. August’s median price was the highest in 15 months and the highest since California reached its peak price of $893,200 in May 2022. …

• Active listings at the state level have fallen from a year ago for five months in a row, and the year-over-year decline in each of the last four months all registered more than 20 percent. On a month-over-month basis, active listings improved slightly from July to August as fewer listings were taken off the market due to the slowdown in closed sales in August. An increase in newly added for-sale properties from July to August was another contributing factor to an improvement in the overall level of active listings last month.

emphasis added

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in August

This is the fourth look at local markets in August. I’m tracking a sample of about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in August were mostly for contracts signed in June and July. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6.7% range in June, and 6.8% in July, compared to the mid-5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in August.

Active Inventory in August

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in August.

Inventory for these markets is down 8.4% YoY, a slightly smaller YoY decline than in July.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver and Minneapolis (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in August

And here is a table for new listings in August (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 9.9% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with the “golden handcuffs” of low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 22.6% YoY. The decline in new listing in August - for these areas - was much smaller than the YoY decline for the last several months.

This is partially due to the collapse in new listings in the 2nd half of 2022 and also some pickup in new listings. It seems likely new listings will be up YoY later this year, but still at historically low levels.

Closed Sales in August

And a table of August sales.

In August, sales in these markets were down 12.1% YoY. In July, these same markets were down 14.5% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a slightly smaller YoY decline NSA than in July for these markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in August 2022 and August 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates - and sales in August on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis will likely be close to the July sales rate (4.07 million SAAR).

Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.