4th Look at Local Housing Markets in March; California Home Sales Down 4.4% YoY in March
The NAR is scheduled to release March existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, April 18th at 10:00AM ET. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, down from 4.38 million in February.
Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.23 million SAAR for March.
California Home Sales Decreased in March, New Listings Increased
California doesn’t report monthly inventory numbers, but they do report the year-over-year change. Here is the press release from the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales lose steam in March while median home price hits seven-month high, C.A.R. reports
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 267,470 in March, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2024 if sales maintained the March pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
March’s sales pace fell 7.8 percent from the revised 290,470 homes sold in February and declined 4.4 percent from a year ago, when a revised 279,700 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The sales pace remained below the 300,000-threshold for the 18th consecutive month. On a year-to-date basis, home sales still exceeded the level experienced in first-quarter 2023 by 0.7 percent, but the gain continued to shrink in March.
“While home sales lost momentum in March, the housing market remains competitive as we’re seeing the statewide median home price reaching the highest level in seven months, and homes selling quicker than last year,” said C.A.R. President Melanie Barker, a Yosemite REALTOR®. “On the supply side, the market continues to improve with an increasing number of properties being listed on the market as more sellers begin to accept the new normal.”
The statewide median price recorded a strong year-over-year gain in March, climbing 7.7 percent from $793,260 in March 2023 to $854,490 in March 2024. California’s median home price was 6.0 percent higher than February’s $806,490. The year-over-year gain was the ninth straight month of annual price increases for the Golden State. March marked the 11th time in the last 12 months that the median price for an existing single-family home was above $800,000. …
Active listings at the state level increased on a year-over year basis for the second consecutive month, and the increase for the current month was the largest in 13 months – an encouraging sign that housing supply could be heading in the right direction as the market enters the spring homebuying season. … New active listings at the state level increased from a year ago for the third consecutive month by double digits as more sellers listed their homes on the market ahead of the spring home buying season. The jump in new housing supply, along with a modest slowdown in housing demand last month, contributed to an improvement in the overall active listings.
emphasis added
4th Look at Local Markets in March
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to March 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).
This is the fourth look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Closed sales in March were mostly for contracts signed in January and February when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.44% and 6.78%, respectively. This is down from the 7%+ mortgage rates in the August through November period (although rates are now back in the 7%+ range again).
Active Inventory in March
Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets.
Inventory for these markets were up 17.6% year-over-year in February and are now up 20.1% year-over-year. A key will be how much inventory builds over the next few months.
Inventory is down sharply in most of these areas compared to 2019.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver and Minneapolis (included in state totals)
Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!
New Listings in March
And here is a table for new listings in March (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 4.5% year-over-year.
Last month, new listings in these markets were up 24.2% year-over-year.
New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in most of these areas are down compared to 2019 activity.
Closed Sales in March
And a table of March sales.
In March, sales in these markets were down 9.7% YoY. In February, these same markets were up 1.6% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Sales in most of these markets are down compared to 2019.
This is a year-over-year decrease NSA for these early reporting markets. However, there were two fewer working days in March 2024 compared to March 2023, so sales Seasonally Adjusted will be higher year-over-year than Not Seasonally Adjusted sales.
This data suggests that the March existing home sales report will likely show a decrease from the February rate, and the 31st consecutive year-over-year decline in sales.
More local markets will release data after the NAR release tomorrow!