4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
California Home Sales Up 19.5% SA YoY in November
The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million in October. Last year, the NAR reported sales in November 2023 at 3.91 million SAAR. This will be the second year-over-year gain since July 2021 (last month was the first).
Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.09 million SAAR for November.
This is the fourth look at local markets in November. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released. The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).
Closed sales in November were mostly for contracts signed in September and October when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.18% and 6.43%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). These were the lowest mortgage rates in 2 years!
California Home Sales Up 19.5% YoY in November
California doesn’t report monthly inventory numbers, but they do report sales and the change in months of inventory.
From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California experiences largest annual increase in home sales since June 2021, but sales level remains below pre-COVID norm, C.A.R. reports
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 267,800 in November, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2024 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
November’s sales pace climbed 1.1 percent from the 264,870 homes sold in October and was up 19.5 percent from a year ago, when a revised 224,140 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The strong year-over-year gain observed last month was largely due to low-base effects, as home sales in November 2023 dropped to their lowest level since late 2007. …
The statewide unsold inventory index (UII) improved from both the prior month and the same month of last year in November, as inventory for single-family housing units continued to grow year-over-year by double-digits. Despite a solid increase in closed sales in November, last month’s UII recorded a gain of 13.8 percent from the same month of last year, due primarily to a surge in active listings at the state level by almost 27 percent. In fact, it was the ninth consecutive annual double-digit increase in for-sale properties for the Golden State. With market activity remaining slow during the holiday season and mortgage rates likely to stay elevated in at least the next couple of weeks, housing supply could inch up further at the start of 2025. …
emphasis added
Months of Supply
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Note the regional differences with more months-of-supply in the South, especially in Florida and Texas (although November statistics in Florida were likely still impacted by Hurricane Milton).
Active Inventory in November
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets.
Inventory was up 20.6% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 25.1% YoY. A key for house prices will be the level of inventory over the Winter.
There are significant regional differences for inventory, with sharp increases in the South and Southeast (especially in Florida and Texas).
Notes for all tables:
New additions to tables in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)
Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!
New Listings in November
And here is a table for new listings in November (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 2.3% year-over-year.
Last month, new listings in these markets were up 8.7% year-over-year.
New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in most of these areas are down compared to November 2019 activity.
Closed Sales in November
And a table of November sales.
In November, sales in these markets were up 4.9% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were up 4.9% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Important: There was one fewer working day in November 2024 (19) as compared to November 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will better than the NSA data suggests (there are other seasonal factors).
Last month, there was one more working day in October 2024 (22) as in October 2023 (21), so seasonally adjusted sales were not as strong year-over-year as NSA sales.
Sales in all of these markets are down significantly compared to November 2019.
Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.