4th Look at Local Housing Markets in May; California Home Sales Down 6% YoY in May
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release May Existing Home Sales on Friday June 21st at 10 AM ET. The early consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.14 million in April, and down from 4.23 million in May 2023.
California Home Sales Decreased in May, New Listings Increased
California doesn’t report monthly inventory numbers, but they do report the year-over-year change. Here is the press release from the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Highest mortgage rates since late 2023 dampen California home sales; California median home price sets another record-high, C.A.R. reports
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 272,410 in May, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2024 if sales maintained the May pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
May’s sales pace dipped 1.1 percent from the revised 275,540 homes sold in April and were down 6.0 percent from a year ago, when a revised 289,860 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The sales pace remained below the 300,000-threshold for the 20th consecutive month, and year-to-date home sales were flat.
“California home sales stalled in May as mortgage rates reached the highest level in five months and may have contributed to the slowdown in market activity,” said C.A.R. President Melanie Barker, a Yosemite REALTOR®. “However, a moderation in interest rates in the past couple of weeks and recent improvements in housing inventory could create an opportunity for motivated buyers to reenter the market before the homebuying season peaks.”
The statewide median price set another record high in May, edging up 8.7 percent from $835,280 in May 2023 to $908,040 in May 2024, exceeding the $900,000-benchmark for the second month in a row. California’s median home price was 0.4 percent higher than April’s $904,210. The year-over-year gain was the 11th straight month of annual price increases for the Golden State. Seasonal factors and tight housing supply conditions will continue to put upward pressure on home prices in the coming months. …
Active listings at the state level rose on a year-over year basis for the fourth straight month, and the increase was the largest in 15 months.
emphasis added
4th Look at Local Markets in May
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to May 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).
This is the fourth look at several early reporting local markets in May. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Closed sales in May were mostly for contracts signed in March and April when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.82% and 6.99%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).
Active Inventory in May
Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets.
Inventory is up 38.1% year-over-year (YoY). Last month inventory in these markets was up 31.7% YoY. A key for house prices will be how much inventory builds over the next few months.
Inventory is down in most of these areas compared to 2019. Inventory in Denver and Jacksonville and Phoenix is up compared to May 2019.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to tables in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state total)
Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!
New Listings in May
And here is a table for new listings in May (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 14.4% year-over-year.
Last month, new listings in these markets were up 22.5% year-over-year.
New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in all of these areas - except Jacksonville - are down compared to May 2019 activity.
Closed Sales in May
And a table of May sales.
In May, sales in these markets were down 0.8% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were up 7.1% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). However, there were two more working days in April 2024 than in April 2023, so seasonally adjusted, sales were down YoY last month.
Sales in all of these markets are down compared to May 2019.
This is a small year-over-year decrease NSA for these markets. There were the same number of working days in May 2024 compared to May 2023, so the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted sales will be about the same as the NSA data suggests. The NAR reported sales in May 2023 were 4.23 million SAAR.
This data suggests that the May existing home sales report will likely show sales down slightly from sales in May 2023.
More local markets to come!