4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November; California Sales off 48% YoY

Another step down in sales in November

This is the fourth look at local markets in November. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in November were mostly for contracts signed in September and October. Mortgage rates moved higher in September, and 30-year mortgage rates were over 7% for most of October (no points), and that likely impacted closed sales in November and December.

NOTE: I’ll be adding several more markets next month!

California Home Sales Down 48% YoY in November, Prices Decline YoY

California doesn’t report monthly inventory numbers, but they do report the change in months of inventory. Here is the press release from the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Rapid interest rate increases continue to depress California home sales and prices in November, C.A.R. reports

• Existing, single-family home sales totaled 237,740 in November on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 13.2 percent from October and down 47.7 percent from November 2021.

• November’s statewide median home price was $777,500, down 3.0 percent from October and down 0.6 percent from November 2021.
...
Housing demand in California continued to fall as rising interest rates further dampened the state’s housing market in November as home sales registered the lowest annualized pace since October 2007 and the largest year-over-year sales drop in at least the past four decades, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 237,740 in November, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. November’s sales pace was down 13.2 percent on a monthly basis from 274,040 in October and down 47.7 percent from a year ago, when 454,450 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The year-to-year sales decline was the biggest since 1980.
...
• Housing inventory in California continued to rise both month-to-month and year-to-year as the market entered its holiday season and home sellers remained on the sideline. The statewide unsold inventory index (UII) was unchanged from the prior month at 3.3 months in November, but it was more than doubled the level of 1.6 months recorded in the same month of last year.

emphasis added

Active Inventory in November

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in November.

Inventory in these markets were down 29% YoY in January and are now up 41% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year, and a larger YoY inventory increase than in October (up 35% YoY).

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in November

And here is a table for new listings in November. For these areas, new listings were down 19.1% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 18.2% YoY.

Closed Sales in November

Here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely, and the preliminary data below suggests a sharp decline in sales in November.

NOTE: Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.16 million SAAR for November (the NAR reports this coming Wednesday). The consensus is for the NAR to report 4.20 million. (Lawler has an excellent track record).

Sales in some of the hottest markets are down around 40% YoY (all of California was down 47.7%), whereas in other markets, sales are only down in around 20% YoY.

In November, sales were down 36.3% in these markets. In October, these same markets were down 28.6% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that in November 2022, there were the same number of selling days as in November 2021, so the SA decline will be similar to the NSA decline. And this suggests another significant step down in sales in November!

More local markets to come!