I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year, especially active inventory and new listings (also inventory data from Altos Research at bottom).
I’ll update this table throughout the month as additional data is released. This note adds Albuquerque, Colorado, Houston, Memphis and Nashville.
Note that inventory is up year-over-year (YoY) in Sacramento (one of the few local markets with a YoY inventory increase.
Here is a summary of active listings for the first 14 housing markets released for August. So far inventory is down 2.7% in August from July, and down 29.7% YoY.
Note: Denver is not included in the totals (included in Colorado).
And here is a table for new listings in August. So far new listing are down 2.4% YoY. However, not all areas report new listings, and Houston just reports that annual change. Given the size of the Houston market, a 10.9% annual increase in New Listings would likely change the sign of the total.
“Single-family homes inventory reached a 1.9-months supply in August. While that is down from 2.6 months a year earlier, that is the biggest supply of homes the market has had in 2021 and reflects a 10.9 percent increase in new listings.”
And a table of August sales. So far sales are down 0.6% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Altos Research: Inventory Down 1.4% Week-over-week, Up 41% from Low in early April
Every Monday, Mike Simonsen of Altos Research released weekly inventory data. Here is a graph, courtesy of Altos.
As of September 10th, inventory was at 431 thousand (7 day average), compared to 579 thousand for the same week a year ago. That is a decline of 25.5%.
Compared to the same week in 2019, inventory is down 55%.
A week ago, inventory was at 437 thousand, and was down 25.1% YoY.
Seasonally, inventory bottomed in April, but may have peaked. Inventory was about 40.7% above the record low in early April. Usually inventory peaks in the Summer, and then declines into the Fall. Will inventory follow the normal seasonal pattern, or will inventory continue to increase over the coming months? This will be important to watch for house prices and housing activity.