5th Look at Local Housing Markets in October

No Signs of Slowing

This is the fifth look at local markets in October. This update adds Alabama, Austin, Boston, Charlotte, Indiana, Minneapolis, Phoenix, and Rhode Island.

I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

My view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory (not yet!).

The following data is important, especially active inventory and new listings. One of the key factors for house prices is supply, and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.

On a national basis, it is possible inventory will be up year-over-year sometime during the winter months, but inventory will still be at very low levels. It is also possible that we will see record lows over the Winter.

Active Inventory in October

Here is a summary of active listings for the housing markets that have reported so far in October. For these markets, inventory was down 6.5% in October MoM from September, and down 24.1% YoY.

Of the markets that have reported so far, inventories in Jacksonville and San Diego are at record lows. Sacramento and Washington, D.C. are the only markets so far with inventory up YoY in October (Austin is essentially unchanged YoY).

Inventory almost always declines seasonally in October, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 22.1% YoY, so the YoY decline in October is slightly larger than in September. This is not indicating a slowing market.

In California, the C.A.R. reported inventory was down 18.3% YoY, but this isn’t included in the table below since C.A.R. doesn’t report monthly numbers.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas), and Santa Clara (San Jose)

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver, or Minneapolis (included in state totals).

   

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New Listings in October

And here is a table for new listings in October. For these areas, new listings were down 8.6% YoY. That is a larger decline than last month (September), when new listings in these markets was down 1.5% YoY.

Note: Not all areas report new listings.

Closed Sales in October

And a table of October sales. Sales for these markets were down 8.9% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that there was one fewer selling day in October ‘21 compared to October ‘20, so the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) number will show less of a YoY decline than the NSA numbers.

In California, the C.A.R. reported sales were down 10.4% YoY (not included in table).

The NAR is scheduled to release October existing home sales next Monday, October 22nd and the consensus is the NAR will report sales of 6.20 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, down from 6.29 million in September, and down from 6.73 million in October 2020.

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