5th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
NAR to Release November Existing Home Sales on Wednesday
This is the fifth look at local markets in November. I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
This update adds Boston, Indiana, and Washington, D.C.
My view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory (not yet!).
The following data is important, especially active inventory and new listings. One of the key factors for house prices is supply and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.
On a national basis, it is possible inventory will be up year-over-year sometime during the winter months, but inventory will still be at very low levels.
However, it now seems likely we will see record inventory lows over the Winter.
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.45 million in November, up 1,7% from October’s preliminary pace but down 2.1% from last November’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should be little changed from a year earlier, with the SA/NSA difference reflecting this November’s higher business day count relative to last November’s.
Local realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that the YOY % decline in the inventory of existing homes for sale last month was larger than was the case in October.
Finally, local realtor/MLS reports suggest the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 13.0% from last November.
CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release November existing home sales on Wednesday, December 22, 2021, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 6.20 million SAAR. Take the over.
Active Inventory in November
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in November. Inventory was down 15.3% in November month-over-month (MoM) from October, and down 26.0% year-over-year (YoY).
Inventory almost always declines seasonally in November, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 22.5% YoY, so the YoY decline in November is larger than in October. This isn’t indicating a slowing market.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas), and Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals).
Please share with your friends and colleagues!
New Listings in November
And here is a table for new listings in November. For these areas, new listings were up 1.5% YoY. Note that not all areas report new listings.
This is slightly more new listings than the same month a year ago.
Closed Sales in November
And a table of November sales. Sales were up 0.9% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
This is solid sales in the areas that have reported so far for November. There is one more working day in November this year compared to 2020, so even though sales are up slightly NSA, sales will likely be down SA (see Lawler’s forecast above).
One more update for November to come.