A Slowdown in Showings

Using data from the Twin Cities

The following data is courtesy of David Arbit, Director of Research at the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and NorthstarMLS (posted with permission). Here is a link to their data.

The first graph shows the 7-day average showings for the Twin Cities area for 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.

There was a huge dip in showings in 2020 (black) at the start of the pandemic, and then showing were well above 2019 (blue) levels for the rest of the year. And showings in 2021 (gold) were very strong in the first half of the year, and then were closer to 2019 in the 2nd half.

Note that there were dips in showings during holidays (July 4th, Memorial Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas), and also dips related to protests and curfews related to the deaths of George Floyd and Daunte Wright.

2022 (red) started off solid but is now below the previous three years.

The second graph shows the Twin Cities affordability index. The Twin Cities affordability index (like the NAR’s) went below 100 in April, for the first time since at least 2003. This means a local family earning the median income can no longer afford the median priced home. This is a 28.6% decline in affordability year-over-year.

And here is what happened to mortgage payments in the 1978 to 1981 period (see: Housing: Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust, Look instead at the 1978 to 1982 period for lessons)

For comparison, payments are up about 35% over the last 6 months for the same price home. Adding in price appreciation (about 10% over the 6 months), principal and interest payments are up almost 50%.

This is just one market, but the inventory and affordability dynamics have been similar in most places.