April ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth was 0.4% in March"
Here is the ICE March Mortgage Monitor report (pdf).
Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Early Spring Housing Market Shows Firmer Prices Amid Affordability Reset and Inventory Growth
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. … today released its April 2026 Mortgage Monitor report, which finds that the spring housing market began on stronger footing, buoyed by improved affordability and slowly rebuilding inventory, despite the recent uptick in interest rates.
“Mortgage rates bottomed near 5.95% early this year, pushing affordability to its best levels in four years and helping drive two of the firmest monthly home price gains we’ve seen in over a year,” said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE. “Since then, 30‑year rates have risen roughly 40 basis points, pulling about four percent of buying power back out of the market and reshaping conditions from those early‑year peaks. Even so, 99 out of 100 major markets still saw improved affordability from a year ago, and inventory continues to rebuild. That combination is helping this spring market feel better supplied and more balanced than in recent years, even as rate volatility reasserts itself."
Key findings from the April Mortgage Monitor include:
Home price growth remains modest, but early spring brought the firmest monthly gains in nearly a year
Annual home price growth was 0.4% in March, while February and March saw the strongest seasonally adjusted monthly gains in nearly 12 months. The firming was driven in part by lower rates and better affordability earlier in 2026, though performance continues to vary widely by region, with the Midwest and Northeast showing the most strength and many Western markets continuing to soften.
Affordability remains improved year over year, even after the recent rate rebound
The roughly 40-basis-point rise since late February has reduced buying power by about 4% from early-2026 peaks. Even so, March affordability was the best for that month in four years, and 99 of the 100 largest U.S. markets were more affordable than a year earlier.
Inventory is recovering but remains below pre-pandemic norms
Housing inventory rose 8% year over year in March, yet active listings remain 11% below typical 2017–2019 levels. Forty percent of markets are at or above pre-pandemic supply, with the strongest gains in the Mountain West and parts of the South; deep deficits persist across much of the Northeast.
The rate rebound has sharply reduced refinance incentives
Higher rates have cut the number of borrowers considered “in the money” for a refinance by roughly 60% from recent highs. ICE prepayment data also suggests the lock-in effect is more likely to ease gradually than unwind at any single rate threshold, as many homeowners — especially Baby Boomers — remain reluctant to move. …
emphasis added
Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in February
Here is a graph of the national delinquency rate from ICE. Overall delinquencies increased and February but remain below the pre-pandemic levels. Source: ICE McDash
The national delinquency rate rose by 7 bps in February to 3.72%, driven by a 4% seasonal rise in early (30-day) delinquencies and a 3% rise in seriously delinquent (90-plus day) loans
That rate is up 20 bps from the same time last year but remains 12 bps below its February 2020 pre-pandemic benchmark
878,000 loans are severely delinquent or in foreclosure — a sharp rise (+175,000, +25%) over the past four months, and the largest such volume since June 2018, excluding the immediate effect of the pandemic
FHA loans have accounted for more than 80% of the recent increase, with seriously past due FHA loan volumes up by more than 40% over that span, compared with 14% for VA mortgages and 9% among GSEs
February saw 35,000 foreclosure starts, down 16% from January but up 6% year over year. Foreclosure sales declined 13% in the month but rose 25% year over year
House Prices Up 0.4% Year-over-year in March
Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 0.4% year-over-year in March.
Annual home price growth slowed to 0.4% in early March, reflecting soft market conditions over the past 12 months. Early signs of firming are emerging, driven by lower rates and improved affordability earlier this year
On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose 0.21% in February and 0.18% in early March — the two strongest monthly readings in nearly a year
Those gains represent seasonally adjusted annualized rates of 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively, a noticeable step up from the weak growth seen last fall and winter
Fewer than 20% of markets saw month-over-month price declines on an adjusted basis in recent months, down from 60% last summer. Nearly 80% of markets are now showing firming in their monthly price changes
Western markets are among the few still seeing softness or continued cooling. Midwest and Northeast markets are firming
Single-family home prices are up 0.74% year over year. Condo prices are down 2.1%. Nearly every major market has single-family homes outperforming condos, and 60% of markets are seeing condo prices fall from a year ago
39 of the 100 largest markets are seeing home prices below year-earlier levels, all in the South and West
Only 19 of those markets saw prices fall on a seasonally adjusted basis from February to March, suggesting broader price stability early this spring on softer rates even in markets still showing year-over-year declines
18 and 19 markets recorded seasonally adjusted one-month price declines in February and March, respectively — the smallest such shares in more than a year
The strongest firming is in the Midwest and Northeast, where improved affordability earlier this year continues to run into tight inventory. Softening persists across much of the West
Year over year, the largest price gain is in New Haven, Conn., at 7.3%. The Northeast holds six of the top seven spots for annual appreciation, and the Northeast and Midwest together account for 25 of the 26 markets with the strongest year-over-year gains
The recent rise in 30-year rates has removed about 4% of buying power from the peak levels seen earlier this year
Buyer behavior this spring will be an important indicator of whether recent price firming can be sustained
There is much more in the mortgage monitor.