California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

Here a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow.

The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in December. Last year, the NAR reported sales in January 2024 at 4.00 million SAAR.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.09 million SAAR for January.

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January

California doesn’t report monthly inventory numbers, but they do report sales and the change in months of inventory.

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Elevated mortgage rates drag down January home sales, C.A.R. reports

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 254,110 in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR^® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2025 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

January’s sales pace fell from the 282,490 homes sold in December and was down 1.9 percent from a year ago, when a revised 259,160 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The January sales level was the lowest in 13 months, and the double-digit month-to-month sales decline was the biggest decrease in 30 months. The year-over-year decline was the first in eight months. …

The January statewide median price decreased from December but continued to climb on a year-over-year basis for the 19th straight month. The January median price declined 2.6 percent from $861,020 in December to $838,850 in January and was up 6.3 percent from a revised $789,480 in January 2024. …

• The statewide Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, rose both month over month and year over year. The index was 4.1 months in January, up from 2.7 months in December and up from 3.2 months in January 2024. Active listings, in fact, grew at the fastest annual rate in two years and increased on a month-to-month basis at an unseasonally strong pace. The solid rebound in housing inventory was partly due to the recent slowdown in market activity, but a surge in newly added properties at the start of the year also contributed to the jump in supply.

emphasis added

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in January

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the fourth look at local markets in January. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in January were mostly for contracts signed in November and December when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.81% and 6.72%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in November, but down from the average rate of 7.1% in November and December 2023.

Months of Supply

Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely this will be near the seasonal low for months-of-supply.

Months in red are areas that will likely see over 6 months of supply later this year.

Active Inventory in January

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets.

Inventory was up 27.4% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 222.6% YoY. December and January are seasonally the low months for inventory. The real key is what happens in March!

Note the regional differences. For example, inventory is up sharply in Jacksonville, and down significantly in Maryland and New Hampshire compared to January 2019.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to tables in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver and Minneapolis (included in state totals)

4. Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!

New Listings in January

And here is a table for new listings in January (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 14.4% year-over-year.

Last month, new listings in these markets were up 6.8% year-over-year.

New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in most of these areas are down compared to January 2019 activity (Jacksonville and Phoenix are exceptions).

Closed Sales in January

And a table of January sales.

In January, sales in these markets were up 2.5% YoY. Last month, in December, these same markets were up 11.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in January 2025 (21) as compared to January 2024 (21). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).

Sales in most of these markets are down compared to January 2019.

Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.